Random Predictions and Ramblings (originally posted (May 23, 2005)
Published February 07, 2009 07:18AM, by Jake Morgan
(originally posted (May 23, 2005)
RANDOM PREDICTIONS AND RAMBLINGS
Time will tell!
(May 23, 2005) - I’ve made tons of predictions over the eight years I’ve had this website. I’ve spent countless hours arguing my point of view and why I made such an extreme prediction. I’ve been lucky with a few of them and I thought it was time to consolidate all my crazy random predictions and ramblings from the first half of 2005 and put them all in one spot. I’ve also added a few new predictions to the mix. Remember these are just predictions from a crazy idiot with a webpage. I don’t have a magic crystal ball or a time machine and these are just my best educated guesses based on the current conditions and past occurrences. Time will tell if I get any of these predictions right. Maybe in 5 or 6 years we will look back on this archived page and laugh at what a fool I was. Then again maybe in a few years we will look back and my prediction batting average will remain pretty high, I guess time will tell.
Again these are just crazy predictions!
Prediction Mod: The NTPA’s decision to limit the overdrive on the 4 hemi mods will bring back the Chevy guys. The Formula will continued to be tweaked by the NTPA rule makers for the next few years and technology will continue to develop, but ultimately we will again see a mix of engine combinations in the winners circle. We may even see a 3 Hemi points champ, Turbine points champ, and 4 Chevy points champ within a 3 or 4-year cycle (Don’t be surprised to see Allison’s mixing it up for a Championship either). Variety is the spice of life and it will come back to this class in a big way over the next half dozen seasons. This class will be up for grabs by just about anyone with any given combination. It all hinges on rules, well written rules can keep the varying combinations close this could turn out to be one of the most exciting points battles on the GN circuit over the next few summers. The ATPA on the other hand, will continue to be a small battle of 4 “unlimited” hemi tractors vs. turbines with an occasional upset by The Funny Farmall. Their GA mod class will continue to dwindle to a very small handful of tractors with a very limited number of events. It may eventually turn into an invitational regional circuit. Overall the outlook for this class is extremely bright as long as the NTPA keeps the entire group of combinations close.
Prediction Unlimited Mod: This is a tough one to predict, this class could go the way of the Dinosaur or it may continue along just fine. I’m really 50/50 on this one. Sorry to take such a wishy-washy stance but I really don’t’ know. I’m not sure if there is going to be a slight weight increase in this class but it needs more separation between it and the regular mod class. If a mod can win an unlimited hook (Joe Eder last year) then either the mod limits are too high (they were, ATPA still are) or the unlimited limits are too low. If there’s no real separation in the classes why bother having two separate classes? Maybe a weight increase would open up the gap between the Limited and Unlimited mods.
Predictions Mini Mods: This class is still looking for it’s niche. There are some great tractors on the GN circuit. They put on a great show, they’re exciting, unpredictable, and powerful it seems like the perfect formula from the fans perspective… from the pullers perspective they are a single engine “reasonably cost effective class” (Before everyone starts to yell, I know there is no such thing as a cost effective class in pulling but mini is a close as it gets.) They are easier to haul and can be worked on in the average garage. So how can this cost effective fan friendly class not grow? Simple answer: no developed “farm system” Most states don’t offer Mini’s as an option and with limited places to pull there is limited interest to build. I expect this class to continue along on its current pace. It will pick up a few tractors here and there but I don’t expect this class to change much. The minis have a great thing going but they will continue to be a class looking to fill a niche.
Predictions Twd: I’m going out on a limb (sarcasm intended) and predicting business as usual (which is a very good thing considering how the class is going). This is one of the best and most stable classes in all of pulling. The ATPA is currently the cream of the crop with some of the nicest looking and running trucks anywhere. I’m still a fan of tee-bucket bodied trucks but the ATPA seems to have the winning formula from a fans standpoint, especially new fans. This truck class will continue to carry a heavy load for the ATPA circuit. The competitors on the ATPA circuit are some of the classiest and most professional in all of pulling, they are a credit to the sport on and off the track. The full bodies have a huge canvas for some of the brightest and most colorful paint schemes. From a sponsorship standpoint this class is the backdrop or billboard I’d use to advertise my product if I were a perspective sponsor. I predict that we will gradually see bigger and bigger sponsors on the sides and hoods of some of these great looking trucks. On the other side of the equation, the NTPA will continue to plug along with its mix of tee-buckets and full-bodied trucks. The NTPA will continue to look to the other side of the fence and see that indeed the grass is greener on the “A” side. The NTPA will eventually pick up some full-bodied trucks for its circuit and will be a better for it. Overall the class will continue to gain sponsorship and some great looking new body styles. These wheel-standing moving billboards will continue to attract new fans and sponsors alike.
Predictions Fwd: To continue with the moving billboard theme, the prediction here is very similar to the Twd class, great paint schemes and great sponsorship opportunities. Here comes the big prediction part: This class will see some experimentation on a few different levels over the next few years. What exactly do I mean by experimentation? I mean a combination class of supercharged and naturally aspirated trucks. I few brave promoters will play around with this class at select non-points and invitational events. Somebody will hit a winning formula and figure out how to make the trucks run together and be competitive. The combo class will generate a ton of interest from fans. Mountain motors vs. blower motors will give fans a little something different to cheer for. The Fwd truck class will gradually evolve towards a combo class on more circuits, it will probably be a grassroots movement and work it’s way up to the national level.
Predictions Diesel Fwd: This class will grow and fill a niche for the smoking-truck fans. I expect to see growth on the grass roots level for this class. I think in 5-10 years there will be a fairly health class of diesel pulling trucks all across this country with a single charger, 460ish CID limit.
Prediction Light Limited Super Stock: I think this class has got a ton of potential. It fills a niche that the true light Super Stock used to fill. This class is a place for the 3-4 bottom plow tractors: the truly light tractors. There is a ton of variety and every color can be represented. That’s the good new, now for the bad news: The biggest stumbling block this class has is unified rules. The Badger State Pullers, ECMTPA, ECITPA and the Ohio River Valley Tractor Pullers and any other group interested in adopting this class should get together and come to a rules compromise. Everybody needs to give a little. Unfortunately the history of pulling shows that two groups can never seem to get along for the good of the sport, maybe we can try to change for the good of this class. I predict that there will eventually be a compromise of sorts. If common ground can be found for this class it will start to appear on circuits all across this country.
This isn’t a prediction it’s just an idea for a reasonable compromise:
- Single charger diesel with 440 CID max
- Twin charger diesel under 360 CID max
- Single charger gas/propane/methanol tractors 360 CID max
Prediction Super Farm: This class will continue to grow. The Pro Stock pullers that can’t keep up with the elite Big Block John Deere PS will gradually trickle into this class. The class will continue to be mostly Green and Red but a few new Agco and Massey will join the bunch. This class may be headed for a combination with the Limited Pro (more on that below). Components will eventually be allowed as an option. It may be a very interesting half dozen years for this class.
Prediction for Limited Pro Stock: This is the true diesel class of the future. The 540 limit will keep this class colorful and the addition of a component tractor option will keep new engine combinations reasonably priced. The OTTPA and NTPA will take a serious look at adding this class to their rulebooks within the next few years (The 540 CID version of this class, not the A pump vs. P pump vs. 2 charger under 430 version, that's too confusing). State organizations that are looking for a little more color will also adopt this class into their rulebook. This class will slowly take hooks away from the Pro Stock and Super Farm. A potential combination with the Super Farm will happen on select circuits. It will be somewhat successful but eventually the LPS will win out because of the higher Hp/wheel speed and abundance of color. At some point soon LPS will appear at Bowling Green and the National Farm Machinery Show. The committee in Louisville already does an excellent job selecting tractors and this will be an exciting and colorful addition to the event. They will probably be added at the expense of a Pro Stock session.
Prediction for Pro Stock: I predict that the numbers will dwindle in the class over the next 4-5 year. As I predicted last year all the organizations will allow component tractors. The color will go to 80%-90% Green. The small block JD tractors that choose to stay in the class will gradually change their setups to big block tractors. There will be a few Red tractors that do the R&D and make the little DT466 run near the top but it will ultimately lead to a loss of reliability and in the end they will get left behind. In an almost last ditch effort to gain color the ATPA will allow all Ag blocks and eventually aftermarket blocks for non-green tractors. This will signal that the class is grasping at straws and is very close to dieing. The price tag will be double and the fan interest will be minimal. Turbo limits and pump limits will also be proposed as a solution to this class. The class will become a very small niche class with pulls at a select few events. I will continue to support the PS class and die hard fans will still enjoy watching the 680 Deere roar down the track with tremendous Hp but this class may eventually be combined with the Diesel Super Stock and it will ultimately be replaced by the LPS. The only salvation I see for this class is CID limit in the mid 500’s and unfortunately I don’t see that happening.
Prediction Light Super Stock: This prediction is two parts: Growth, and Safety. If the Light Super Stock has a strong showing and abundance of tractors (and colors) on the national circuit this summer I would expect to see them steal a few hooks away from the DSS and OSS in 2006. I’ve already heard rumors of two hooks for LSS at Bowling Green in 2006. The biggest question remaining is who will turnout at the pulls and will it last all summer. If the turnout is big all year the class has a great future. I can’t stress enough how important turnout will be this summer on the GN circuit. In time even Hoosier state and Outlaws will adopt components in their light classes.
I also think safety will become a concern in this class, I think we are going to see a very scary and potentially dangerous component tractor at some point. The issue is related to the weight conscience Light Super Stock that needs the moveable weight to keep the nose on the ground with 3000+ Hp. I think this will become an issue when someone builds an extremely powerful Light Super Stock that is so under-built and so unsafe that it opens some eyes and causes change. It will probably be a diesel LSS that is naturally heavier to begin with and is short on movable weight. It may or may not cause a formal change in the rule book but at a minimal it will cause the tech officials to tighten up what is deemed safe.
In time I think even the top diesels like Red Line Fever will get a 500 Lb. advantage (6500 lbs) to be able to keep up with the Methanol (6000 lbs) power plants.
As this class continues to steal hooks from the DSS and OSS it will eventually branch out and evolve back into the Super Stock Class. I expect that when the dust settles in 5 to 10 years we will see one unified Super Stock class with 504 Alky at 7500 lbs and Diesels at 8500 lbs. The LLSS will fill the light niche and the SS will cover the rest.
Prediction Alcohol Super Stock: This class will continue on it’s no growth path. Back in 1997 or 1998 I predicted that because of the 650 CID limit and OHC on only the GN level this class would stagnate and be dead in 5 years (this was an extremely bold prediction at the time with the “open” class just being formed. It caused more that a few heated debates), I was partially wrong this class continues to hold on by a thread year after year. I wrote this in 11-22-98 “Unfortunately for the NTPA there are only about 6 Alcohol Super Stock tractors that follow the Grand National Circuit,” for the 2005 season the NTPA only has 4 pre-committed tractors. I also wrote that “if the NTPA doesn’t learn to use the farm system (state and regional rules) correctly the well of good tractors will dry up”, looks like the well is running dry. Times have changed but I’m not going to change my prediction, I do still think this class will die it’s just taking a little longer than I thought. That’s a credit to the loyal pullers that have continued to support this class. The sad thing is this class is exciting and a fan favorite it’s just too bad that the rules were poorly written in it’s inception. In time the LSS will take hooks and eventually take the place of this class at major events. This year may be a make or break year on the NTPA circuit. If only a few tractors turnout to most of the events this class may be done. The majority of alcohol pullers seem to be showing loyalty o the ATPA, in my opinion this is an extremely shortsighted move and will ive pullers even less places to pull their big cube alcohol tractor. ets just hope that history doesn’t repeat itself as far as ATPA’s return oyalty, for those who remember: ATPA used to pull the Heavy Super Stock nd the Light Super Stock as National classes, as soon as something better ame along (Unlimited Ss) it was good bye Heavy and Light Ss, and Hello nlimited Ss, what happens if something better comes along again… is it ood bye Unlimited Ss on the GA circuit as well? Time will tell! p>
Prediction iesel Super Stock: I won’t say the DSS class is done leveling ut. It may look stable at the current time but give it 4-5 years. he Big Block John Deere Pro Stock technology will trickle over into the lass. (I’ve predicted for two or three years that someone was going o build a BBJD SS and get it right and now there look to be 3 new ones n the horizon) REI leftovers will find their way under the hood f a 3-4 charger diesel and the Red guys will find themselves fighting ard to hold on to the winners circle. There will be some big changes n the class and we will be having the same CID discussions (650 is too ig) about DSS unless they put a 540 limit on the class soon. This lass currently has a ton of hooks but some promoters will choose the LSS ver the DSS because they will be able to get a mix of smoke and sparks nd quite a bit more color. The DSS that don’t want to lighten their ractor up to pull in the LSS will find them selves in a combo class with he elite PS. The PS won’t need any extra weight to be able to win ither. p>Predictions Semi Trucks: I still think of this class as regional class. Maybe it’s because of the strength of the Big Rigs eries, or maybe it’s because OSTPA pulls Semi trucks what ever the reason just don’t think of this class as a mid-west/western class. I think ll that may be changing in the next half dozen years. I wouldn’t e real surprised to see some form of Semi trucks on the western circuits n the next few years. I don’t have a good feeling yet if it’s going o grow toward single charger trucks or multi-charger trucks but I think his class can increase it’s presence. I don’t expect this class o ever have huge number based on the size of the vehicles and the difficulties n transporting them but I still expect to see more of them in the Mid-west nd west. p>General Predictions: ul> li> he number of tractor classes will grow in the short term and then they ill be cut back to a reasonable number through attrition and combination.
- The Outlaws will become a major player on the National scene. They will add a few classes like Semis and Limited Pro Stock and they will have a little something for every promoter.
- The ATPA vs. NTPA competition will come to a conclusion over the next decade. Pulling won’t be able to support both National organizations. Their rules will continue to diverge until there is very little crossover between the organizations. The organization with the most reasonable/affordable/fan-oriented rules will still be standing when the dust settles. The organization that doesn’t make it may still have a loyal following and may exist as a niche organization; possibly a limited schedule of big events. Who will come out on top? I’ve got some thoughts but I’ll keep them to myself!
As usual I'd be more than happy to hear comments and discussion on the Feedback page. Feel free to agree, disagree, or just plain yell at me, just make sure you follow the guidelines and rules for the Feedback page. As always thanks for taking the time to read my ramblings.
Jake Morgan
Owner, PULLOFF.COM
Independent Pulling News
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