08:44:08pm, Friday, May 03, 2024
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corn prices
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Farmer Brown
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Just wondering what farmers are going to do about these horrendous corn prices? Sell and take what you get? store it and hope it comes up in the months to come? I know 3.00 corn leaves me in a heck of a bind...not to mention sub 9.00 beans. |
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Re: corn prices
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Registered: 09/03/2010 Posts: 393 |
where can you get $3,00 for corn? Last bid I got is $2.50. |
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Re: corn prices
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Supertiquer
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Horrendous? LOL. It's not gotten HORRENDOUS yet. Wait till it hits $2.00. I saw this coming a looooooooooooong time ago. Yet I was told when I saw it coming, that we would never see $2.00 corn again. |
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Re: corn prices
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about the green
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"Farmer Brown", you have recently had five years of a demand led market that offered a lot of phenomenal prices and opportunities to lock in (many) lofty profit scenarios. Not only for current year production, but also for future years production. So did you take advantage of them? If not, then it will only be time before you're no longer "Farmer Brown" but now "Farmer Broke". But, still the government subsidies will still help prolong your inevitable demise.
Let us know when we can rent your 'cheap' land because in your apparent way of grain marketing, that is the primaryabout way to help make a profitable bottom line. |
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Re: corn prices
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Former Farmer
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Farmed for 30 plus yrs,sold most corn under two bucks,very little over.Not farming cuz can not afford the freedom.Suck it up,too many new tractors and combines you all don't need.you all brought it on yourselves. |
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Re: corn prices
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Anonymous User
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Wow. How many of you farm that have responded? Just curious |
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Re: corn prices
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Anonymous User
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Like Clark said it has been coming We are at least lucky enough to have a good crop. The thing that I have already seen localy is the companies that employ in ag related industrys are laying off employes because of the large sales decline in equipment and services |
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Re: corn prices
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$0.02
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If there was ever a good time to "walk" corn off the farm, it is now. You can find good in almost anything if you look hard enough. |
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Re: corn prices
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Anonymous User
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This spring we bought are first new pece of equipment since 1979 we have always let some other farmer take that first few years of deprecation. I think we will be ok the thing that really scares me is the new guys trying to get started farming. I know of only a few and they are from both sides one I has every thing brand new, new combine every other year, new tractors, new truck knows nothing about working on his own equipment (does have a brand new huge shop). The other I am thinking of does all his own work on equipment and is happy with his old 1256 and 4320. I know who I think will make it.
Good luck to all and no matter what happens be careful stay safe |
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Re: corn prices
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Supertiquer
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randy, I bought a new planter, grain cart, and small tractor and loader the past 2 years. My question is how could someone have a brand new huge shop and buy everything new, yet not know anything about working on his own equipment? Did the guy have the gift of gab? lol 
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Anonymous User
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no Clark a wealthy father in law |
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Re: corn prices
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Anonymous User
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I'm sittin here in the combine goin back and forth reading and 90% of the posts here are about jealousy
Y worry bout the other guy do your thing and go on |
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Posts: 508 |
As a livestock farmer I watched a lot of farms sell in bidding wars between cash croppers? One that I used to rent right be side me also I paid 359 @ tonne del. For corn and watched the green and red parade on the road? I hope you saved some money up from the good years? No sympathy here |
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Re: corn prices
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4th Generation farmer
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Farmed for 30 years. Went thru 3 floods and a few droughts. Always found a way to make it work until now. You can't make money on $3.00 corn with $6.00 input cost. Input cost will and have not gone down for next year. I have had a drought this year and will do good to avg. 100 bu./ acre. I am done and so is the next generation. If you guys can figure a way let me know. If your not a farmer or from a farm back ground you have no idea on this earth what it is all about !!!!!!!!!! |
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yj
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not farming anymore only big business,when JD and Cargill started to loan money and one guy does 10000 acres it is done for the small guy. |
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Survivor
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That's why it is so important to run your farm like a business. |
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Anonymous User
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I milked cows in the 2000s when things were crappy, and I'm crop farming now that things are crappy. I'm making the decisions that will get me through this. All I'm saying is to wish bankruptcy on anyone is not right. All farmers gotta stick together. The fight is on the outside, not amongst ourselves.
That being said yes I believe out farmers cut their own throat in every way possible. |
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wi dairy farmer
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I really hope every grain farmer that went out and paid high rent goes broke. It use to b they needed a new combine every year or two now they think they need 2 or 3 new ones a year. And if it cost $6 to raise a bu of corn u were one of the guys paying too much rent |
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Re: corn prices
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supply and demand
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This is a result of everyone and their brother getting into farming when prices were so good. the worst part is there were some good veteran farmers who should have known better that paid huge money for land and equipment. i'm not sure why they thought those prices were here to stay. now supply outweighs demand by a mile and prices reflect that. a lot of these new guys will be getting out now, and the older guys that expanded will contract to get back into manageable territory and prices will ease back up to a more normal range over the next few years. definitely still some tough times ahead for us though. |
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Anonymous User
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Hope your saving now too then, cause the beef market ain't staying where it is forever |
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Re: corn prices
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LEWIS
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The beef prices wont be affecting me any longer since I found out how good my Wife can fry 1.99 chicken |
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Re: corn prices
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Registered: 04/06/2008 Posts: 974 |
In my opinion the beef price will be good for awhile. I am not saying its gonna stay as high as it is now but it will remain stable. If you guys only knew how many acres of beef pasture have been tore up in the last five years in my area alone, it makes sense why corn is so cheap and beef is high. Record number of acres of corn planted and Record lowest number of cattle across the country. Not to hard to figure out. |
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Re: corn prices
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Registered: 09/09/2009 Posts: 140 |
Have talked alot with dad on this. I only have cows and am young but he said the eighties was worse when he paid 18%+ on loans. We don't rent any land and alot of corn will walk. My opinion is it's your own dam fault. Yeah I know and believe in capitalism but if you didn't think history wouldn't repeat itself your a dam fool. But I'm sure the big guys will file and get bigger. |
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Re: corn prices
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Supertiquer
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File and get bigger? That better not happen this time. That happened in the 80's. And I was in my 20's at that time. No one wanted to listen to me because I was young, even though I had taken care of a dying father with little help from anyone. I am now 55 years of age. And I better NEVER hear the word BAILOUT again. If I do, I will REALLY raise 7734 this time! Unknown Binder, I hope you are with me on this one. |
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Re: corn prices
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wi boy
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your rite. nobody should get bailed out on the grain market. last year we all had opportunity to lock in some profit for this year. those who had rich eyes will suffer a bit for it now. where is the uproar on here when pork was down? beef? poultry? MILK? these other industries in ag have had as many if not more hard times than the grain guys have seen. especially in the past decade. a mad cow disease scare or pink slime blurp sends beef market into a tizzy. or the swine flu. I've read this forum for quite a while, haven't seen to many tears typed when those things happen. I'm not biased to cattle or grain. I have a medium size grain operation and a medium sized dairy. I've watched both ends hurt at different times. in the end this is life. this is business. |
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ted
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18%, I paid 23 to JD in 81 for a new combine,but had to work in town also to love farming !!!!!!!!!! |
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Re: corn prices
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Registered: 04/06/2008 Posts: 974 |
I talked to the territory manager for my local deere dealer in august and he said sales were down 15% already. Imagine by the end of the year how much they will drop off. |
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Re: corn prices
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Ted
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Deere laid off 600 plus several weeks ago already |
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Re: corn prices
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Farmer Brown
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About the only thing I can figure is that the really negative replies here are from the ones who tried farming with not much background on it and went belly up and are now pissed at the ones who are still able to continue in it.Not all of us were able to have the ability to lock in prices for the future......I know I wasn't. |
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Re: corn prices
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about the green
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"Farmer Brown", I believe you are making a lot assumptions about us without having any facts. That is if I properly interpret what you are trying to relay in your poorly stated communication response. If you do not have the ability about grain marketing mechanisms to help with your farm's profitability, then you either learn it or hire a reputable service to perform the important duty for you or you do both. All three scenrios as outlined in each sentence above, are drasticaly affecting your farm's profitablity and survivability. This is not meant to be critical but helpful so you can improve.
Yes, I know exactly what is was like to go through all of the '70's and early '80's scenarios as discussed above. Those and other factors that occurred during that time period, which have not been discussed in this thread, are still all very real in my mind. Knowing how history will repeat itself, it was, I feel quite easy to see a few years ago, that we were in many regards heading right back into the '70's scenario all over again. With the exception being that interest rates, are still currently at historical lows. About four years ago, our local independent owned fertilizer dealer / grain elevator had their annual customer appreciation seminar and supper. Their featured speaker was our land grant university high powered economist. He was painting a very rosy picture and encouraging to 'go at guys and gals'. Well, I was the only one to ask him some questions and I then offered my rebuttal about we are lined right up for the most part to repeat history. And we have except for not having those high interest rates. It was a time, rather than incurring snowballing debt, to pay off or down debt substantially and possibly adding assets to be better positioned in the business long term. However, every business and yes, every household, needs to adhere to sound financial decisions, regardless of the economic situation at hand. "Farmer Brown", to answer your original question, new crop corn cash bid is 2.88 but is -.40 basis. New crop soy is 8.81 but is -.42 basis. However, the carry currently favors storing corn and selling soy for cash if you are strapped for storage space. These poor basis bids are preharvest in our area. Will get worse. That is exactly why those marketing tools needed to have been employed at least months ago. If we country continues in the future with very favorable weather and thus continued big yields with annual carryover building significantly for three to five years, with a stagnated world economy coupled with a continued rising US $, then we could very easily repeat the huge grain storage mountains we saw in the mid 80's. Now that was tough to survive with those absolutely deporable grain prices coupled with still reeling from those exorbitant interest rates of the late '70's / early '80's that was heaped on top of expensive new equipment but more so from out of control exoribitant land prices. In time, they did deflate. That's when farm liquidations took place as the banks called the loans. So just think what could possibly lay ahead for us & (continue to) get your finances and whatever else you need to improve upon, in order. |
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Re: corn prices
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Survivor
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I have the first 100K note I got hanging on the wall as a reminder. It was 1983 and 21 percent. Didn't think I would ever pay it off but did. I hope everyone figures something out. I had to start driving a truck then but that led to another enterprise that is still making money. Good Luck to all. |
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Re: corn prices
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IH LOVER
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Well I feel fortunate for what I have. The corn I have shelled is averaging around 190 bu. I had better corn last year but I was pretty happy with that. Locked all the corn in that I felt I could for 3.50 to 3.75 and beans for between 10.50 to 11.00. I was pretty conservative with contracts because didn't think two years like this would come in a row. I know that I am going to get hammered on all the grain that is not under contract but at least it is something. Not going to be any new equipment this year and the pulling tractor is getting parked most of next season except for a pull or two in my own back door. I am hoping to tighten the belt and ride it out. In the end that is all any of us can do. Don't obsess about what we can't change and be grateful for what we have. God will provide he always does. |
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Re: corn prices
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All of you need to remember that the next time corn goes to $7.00 and beans go to $15.00, the best cure for high prices are high prices!!!! |
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Re: corn prices
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ted
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Does any one know what kind of money Americans save,virtually nothing,farmers have had "HAYDAYS",AND SPENT IT ALL ON NEW MACHINERY THEY DID NOT NEED.HOW MANY GUYS TRIED TO BE THE BIGGEST BADDEST MOST ACREAGE GUY IN THE STATE,WITH MORE THAN THREE TIMES THE MACHINERY TO DO IT ALL IN A SHORT WINDOW,THE COMPANIES THAT SURVIVED THE RECESSION WERE THOSE THAT HAD EQUITY,SURPLUS ON HAND FUNDS,sorry about the caps,intended only one word capped.I do not see many older pickups,tractors or planters,combines and all nice shiny semi trucks,not one or two,but lots !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Just like the commodities market,up ------down ------up ---------down,land and rent need to follow in a relative fashion.Some people were given a Golden Egg when grandpa or Dad handed down the farm(s). Some do not get the Golden Fleece to wrap ourselves in.One good thing is that we come into the world with only a promise,and no one has taken that into the grave full of money.LOL This Too Shall Pass. |
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rent $
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Rent prices need to go down. Nobody can make money while they are paying outrageous rent for land. The "big" farmers are willing to pay high rent and are shoving the smaller farmers out. No wonder why you don't see as many dairy farms while you drive down the road. Smaller farmers aren't able to pay high rent cost and just can't afford to keep the cattle around so something has to give and it's the cattle. Small farmers aren't able to compete with the multi thousand acre farmers, but they sure are proud of what they have and provide for their families |
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Re: corn prices
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Here in our area Bankers are already telling Guys that they are not getting all of the rent proceeds in next years input loans. Either Rent has to come down or they won't be getting money to farm the ground. I remember in 80's a few individuals around here paid 1/2 up front, then never paid the rest come Fall, that's why a lot of the Rent went to all up front. |
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Re: corn prices
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Good grief
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Can we stick to pulling on here? Id rather read bout the air bag dilemma or the fall of the NTPA over this depressive stuff . I get on here to help me forget that I do farm and I love to pull. |
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Re: corn prices
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Supertiquer
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Hey, where is "Banker" at? |
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Re: corn prices
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Farmer Brown
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I like how "About the green" has assumed we have all bought new tractors and combines. I own 2-yes 2 combines...a 1974 John Deere 4400 and a 1984 7720. Hardly new. My newest tractors are 1975 and 1974. Virtually all of my machinery is used. Did buy a new 12,000.00 grain cart last year. I don't like paying interest or long drawn out payments either. I did not inherit my farm from my parents. I have worked hard for all of this. I have this year also taken an off the farm job to make ends meet, which I see is just as determined to make a go of it as doing the contracting game. I do contract, but i'm not a fool either! I don't thin k these crop economists saw 8.00 corn coming either a year out. Hey green, I put a bid out in july for 6.00 corn. It hit. Later it went to 8.00! was I smart or dumb for contracting early or for not waiting til later??? Farming is like going to a casino. it's a gamble. Nothing is for sure. I would rather farm than go to a casino. |
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Re: corn prices
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Youngin
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I hate to say it but sometimes you hafta pay to play the game I know if I wouldn't have stuck my neck out to get some ground I would be working in town now...that being said there were plenty of chances to "make money" just needed to buy put options on the next 5 years bushels like I did. Nobody likes being caught with there pants down, so if your mad you are filling your bins in hope to get $3 a bushel for it that's just plain greed catching up with ya finally, |
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Re: corn prices
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Anonymous User
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Did anyone actually sell corn at that $8 high the only one I know that did had 2 year old corn in the bin. So he didnt really need the money |
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Re: corn prices
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Registered: 02/09/2010 Posts: 237 |
Dad has always had a saying, "Nobody goes broke during the bad years. They go broke during the good years, they just don't realize it until the bad years hit."
I think many of you may operate under this policy without even knowing it. In my opinion, two types of people are about to realize that they are broke: the big shots who have been buying high dollar land, paying high rent with long term contracts, and buying machinery on long term notes. It was easy to make those payments when you could count on $3 profit per bushel. Take that to negative profit, or even break even, and those payments are still needing to be made, things go south fast! The other guy who is gonna find out he's broke is the one who has been spending his profits off farm- high maintenance woman, pulling tractors, or whatever your vice may be. Sure, he can handle it when his combine breaks down, but what about when the tractor goes? then the grain leg? Then something else? During good times, you have to make sure you update, upgrade, and repair. But do it with cash, not payments. Then when things go south, you can tighten the belt and ride out the storm. |
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Re: corn prices
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Supertiquer
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Yes Randy I did sell some at $8.13 right out of the field IN 2012!!!! The problem was, we didn't have much to sell at that price that year. |
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Re: corn prices
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Anonymous User
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heck beans will be at 8 soon |
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Re: corn prices
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Supertiquer
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Yep, and I am not sure I am going to agree that's where they should be. With the crop we are having, I'd be ok with 9. I know some wouldn't be, and that's ok. It's not our fault they got in over their head and didn't want to listen about history. |
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Re: corn prices
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about the green
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"Farmer Brown", I'm impressed with how you cleaned up your English.
Where did I state or elude to, that everybody buyed new equipment, in past few years? If you are going to point to the next to bottom paragraph, then you need to work on your comprehension skills. That was talking about late 70's / early 80's. We could not get the new high horsepower tractors fast enough which were much more labor efficient. Even though we went into debt then, those tractors actually were a productive asset, the same as your new grain cart last year. I, too, did not inherit anything from my parents. It has been lots of long hours (still is) & keeping the nose to the grindstone. Did you make a good profit at the contracted $6.00 corn? If so, you were smart. Then selling $8.00 cash thereafter was a real bonanza and obviously, a very smart decision. At that point was the time to sell as much forward new crop as possible. However, the situation is reversed now. Bet you wished you had at least some of '14 crop contracted at 6.00 I totally agree with you about your sentiments of farming and casino. |
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Re: corn prices
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Registered: 06/30/2008 Posts: 186 |
8 years ago I walked away from a dealership job that I loved because I couldn't make it on my small salary and incentive bonuses. A year or two after having left and went to go work in town, the dealership couldn't keep machinery on the lot. It was that way for a number of years. But here we find ourselves once again on the bottom, or close to bottom, of the cycle that has been in the ag industry for decades. It always has been there and always will be, its nearly predictable. It will always balance out and the industry itself will always weed out those who have put themselves in the compromising positions whether by choice or not. The industry is self sustaining and even with outside/gov't help for some (whether they need or deserve it or not), it will always come full circle and everything will be affected by it; rent, purchase, inputs, equipment, and cash markets.
And more than likely, it will be a year before we see the reflection in the grocery isle with all products, meat included. I truly wish everyone in the industry the best of luck and buckets of wisdom. The "town job" has its own cycle that isn't much more fun than the ag industry. |
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Re: corn prices
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pulling will endure
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pulling will survive it always has , some will pull until their last dollar is gone , some tractors will sell , new faces will appear on the scene , some will hide their tractors when the bankruptcy auction takes place , some will pull and not pay other commitment's , this is history repeating itself , pulling will survive the builders will be fine this is a COD pay first sport for a reason. |
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Supertiquer
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Pull and not pay other commitments? I would like to know how anyone can get by with that. If "banker" would show up, maybe he could tell us how. |
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Re: corn prices
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Registered: 05/09/2008 Posts: 198 |
You have to remember this too. Livestock and Dairy guys are rolling in it pretty good right now. So they will have some play money right now. Its all cyclical. Grain guys had their turn. Now livestock guys. It will flip flop like this for eternity. The best thing you can do is plan! |
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Re: corn prices
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mx335
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It's called diversify. We dairy farm have beef and cash crop i think the beef and dairy cows will be eating lots of corn this year.
The thing is we milk our own cows so not much traveling to pull for us. |
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